Betting Techniques To Determine Amount Of Betting

Most players lose in the long term because they can not manage their money well. Often, the bettor increases your bench with a good run or good odds. The professional player does not waste their profits after a good run, waits their chance and exercises with perfect control of money. The average player usually has good knowledge when making predictions, eventually squandering their profits and starts to bet more frequently and in greater quantities.

There are several techniques that allow the player to decide what amounts to bet: Martingale, betting series and Kelly method are the best known. The first two include various fallacies and Kelly method is not useful in practice, but significantly broadens the perspective to the bettor.

Martingale
Specifically designed for Roulette, Martingale system has a high risk that is double the amount bet every time you lose or back out when the bet is won.

Example: Initially bet 100 euros on a 2.00 quota event. If you lose, you double the bet 200 euros on a new quota event 2.00. And so on. Suppose you win at the third attempt. Since, it was posted in total 100 + 200 + 400 euros = 700 euros, and claimed 2 x 400 euros = 800 euros, you get a net profit of 100 euros.

A common belief among bettors is that the Martingale method is infallible, and that the bookies avoid it by limiting the maximum bet or the maximum gain, but the method itself is false and certain ruin later or earlier.

It includes several fallacies. should understand perfectly:

  • Limited money: For starters, it is assumed that the bettor has an unlimited amount of money when making their bets. In practice this is impossible, and the effectiveness of the method becomes an illusion.
  • Geometric Growth: Doubling time after time causes a geometric growth of the amounts involved. Suppose a player loses eight consecutive times. A similar slump is certainly unusual, but also inevitable if played often. Then, in the ninth move, he will need to wager 256 times on the initial amount. But think hard: Can it be a tolerable risk, for example, 25,600 euros to win only 100?
  • The role of chance: With the Martingale, the player believed to have complete control of the game. If chance is favorable, merely to collect any winnings. If chance is unfavorable, the player adjusts its strategy to reverse the course of actions. This “absolute control” of chance is only an illusion. Returning to the example where a player loses eight consecutive times. As much as the player believes that the amount of your next bet (256 times of the initial amount) is part of a smart plan, the reality is that the amount of your bet has given the chance. Purring the chance led him to lose eight consecutive times and puts you in the unpleasant duty to bet a very high amount in the potential benefits. In short, Martingale planning method is not true, but a way to determines the amounts to bet.

Betting series
Without going into detail about this complicated technique, the method of betting in series, originated from Germany, is similar to Martingale. The fundamental difference is that the amounts bet increase linearly and non-geometric, which significantly reduces the risk and ruin the player. But the player is at an illusion similar to the Martingale.

Nelly Method
Any method based solely on the progression of the amounts, is doomed, but sometimes intuition tell us otherwise. The Martingale, betting is the serial method or any other method imaginable inevitably ends in bankruptcy.

A conceptually different approach is presented by the American mathematician John L. Kelly, because it takes into account the probability of each outcome and, at least from a theoretical point of view, this method is consistent.

Kelly’s theory to determine the optimal amount to bet on an event is as follows if you know the exact probability that the event occurs:
Percentage = Probability – (1-Probability) / (Fee -1)

Percentage is the amount to bet, as % of deposit available to the player, and is calculated from the estimated probability of the event. Since you bet a fraction of the total available money, the method of Kelly avoids dramatic losses and, unlike the Martingale, it tends to reduce the amount to bet when you lose and increase when you win, which is equivalent to a real economic planning rational.

Betting Techniques To Determine Amount Of Betting
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